Does the lane that you draw for your heat alter your chances of winning. Below is an analysis of winners in the VAL over the last 5 years.
|
Lane |
Runs |
First Place |
Percent |
|
1 |
4244 |
902 |
21.25% |
|
2 |
3501 |
746 |
21.31% |
|
3 |
3560 |
634 |
17.81% |
|
4 |
3495 |
656 |
18.77% |
|
5 |
3526 |
700 |
19.85% |
|
6 |
3493 |
691 |
19.78% |
|
7 |
3180 |
548 |
17.23% |
|
8 |
2325 |
367 |
15.78% |
The data is for heats only. The "Runs" column is the number of times that an athlete ran in this lane, ie scratchings have been removed. This tells us that someone running out of lane 1 has a 21.25% chance of winning their heat.
Runners are allocated to lanes in handicap order so the backmarker for the heat will be in lane 1.